U.S. leading economy indicator July 2010

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in July to 109.8, following a 0.3 percent decline in June, and a 0.5 percent increase in May.

Economists: Recovery is firmly on track

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Leading economists are upbeat about the U.S. recovery, forecasting steady growth over the next two years as businesses grow and jobs return, according to a survey released Monday.

"We see a healthy expansion under way, although it will take time to reduce economic slack and repair damaged balance sheets," said Lynn Reaser, president of the National Association for Business Economics, which conducted the survey of 48 top economic forecasters in late January and early February.

The NABE panel says it "expects the recovery to remain firmly on track." Its forecast is for the economy to grow 3.1% in both 2010 and 2011, an estimate that is essentially unchanged from the 3.2% target in NABE's November survey. The group's estimate is a marked improvement from last year's survey, which had forecast that the economy would contract.

Most economists surveyed expect the recovery to be led by businesses. The NABE estimates that corporate earnings will grow 15% this year, which will spur hiring and ultimately bolster household spending.

"Businesses are in position to take up some of the slack because of rebounding profits," said Reaser, who is also chief economist at Point Loma Nazarene University. "Our economists believe improvement in sales and profits will cause them to put out the hiring signs relatively soon," said Reaser.

The NABE panelists expect that jobs will return slowly this year, forecasting an average monthly increase of 50,000 jobs in the first quarter, followed by average monthly job gains of 103,000 the rest of the year. The unemployment rate, which now stands at 9.7%, is expected to tick down to 9.6% by the fourth quarter.

As jobs return, so will consumer spending, which should rise by 2.2% in 2010 and then climb 2.8% in 2011. These relatively small gains can be attributed to the fact that Americans are still feeling financially conservative.

"Overall, our economists believe we are on a fairly healthy growth track and their will be no double dip recession," said Reaser.

Small business loan total amount in recent 6 months drops

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Eight months after President Obama began prodding the nation's banks to increase their small business lending, the loan numbers continue to move in the opposite direction.

The 22 banks that got the most help from the Treasury's bailout programs cut their small business loan balances by a collective $10.5 billion over the past six months, according to a government report released Monday.

Double dip recession?

Most economists agree the U.S. economy is in recovery. The question is whether it will stay that way.

The economy grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. But even with that shot in the arm, there are plenty of worries about whether the economy could topple into another period of decline, or "double dip" recession, early next year.

These concerns have some economists calling for yet another round of economic stimulus early next year to try to jump start the still struggling labor market. The fear is that if the economy heads into another downturn, the Federal Reserve and Congress will have few, if any, tools left to address the new problems.

"If we do slide back into recession, it will be very difficult to get out," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.

So how can we tell if the economy is really at risk of double dipping? Here are six key economic indicators that bear watching. All have shown signs of improvement in recent months. But if they start moving in the wrong direction again, that could be bad news.

Jobs:

Unemployment hit a 26-year high of 10.2% in October. Topping the 10% benchmark got a lot of attention from the public and the White House, but it wasn't the main story for economists. Instead, they look at the U.S. payrolls number, which is based on a survey of employers about how many people are on staff.

That number has steadily improved since 741,000 lost their jobs in January. But 190,000 more jobs were lost in October. That is still more than the average monthly loss during the 2001 recession.

Many economists are forecasting job growth by early 2010. But if job losses continue deep into next year, that could tip the economy back into recession. If job losses start to increase again, it would be a cause for even greater concern since that could lead to a bigger pullback in retail sales, home prices and auto purchases.

Retail sales:

Retail sales have been showing signs of life in recent months. The government's seasonally adjusted retail sales reading, excluding autos, has risen in five of the last six months. Still, the National Retail Federation is forecasting that sales during the all important holiday shopping season will be down 1% from a year ago.

A better than expected Christmas season would do a lot to lift worries hanging over the economy. But with credit tight, unemployment high and consumers who have jobs saving more, some worry retail sales will disappoint. That could cause additional problems for retailers and companies that make the products they sell.

Since consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the nation's economic activity, healthy retail sales are the key to a strong rebound. "If consumers get unexpectedly scared of buying at Christmas, we could go back into recession," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's.

Oil:

Few would argue that the chaos in the financial markets in the fall of 2008 helped send the economy into its worst period of decline since the Great Depression. But the oil price shock earlier that summer, which sent prices to a record high of more than $145 a barrel, may have had an even bigger impact on consumers.

However, as economic activity slowed around the globe, so did oil consumption, causing prices to plunge. So one positive byproduct of the recession for many Americans was a roughly 75% decline in oil prices that occurred between the July 2008 high and the end of last year.

Oil prices have been rising again this year though, due largely to hopes that the end of the global recession is in sight. While prices are not expected to test highs any time soon, there are forecasts that $100-a-barrel oil could return next year thanks to stronger demand.

Since many consumers have limited ability to cut the amount of gasoline they use, another oil shock would take away money they can spend on other goods and services. It can also raise costs for businesses, forcing them to cut back on investment and even staffing.

Autos:

Few industries were hit harder by the recession than the auto industry. Some of the strongest companies, such as Toyota, lost money. Two of the industry's weakest players -- GM and Chrysler -- were forced into bankruptcy.

Auto sales have gotten better in recent months. Sales were essentially flat in October -- an encouraging sign since sales were not artificially boosted that month by the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Automakers are even ramping up production in the fourth quarter to replenish decreased supplies at dealerships.

Most forecasts are for modest improvement in sales across the industry in 2010. But that's contingent on an economic recovery taking hold. If job losses continue to mount and credit stays tight, the industry could be in for another year of weak sales and widespread losses. And that would likely mean more plant closings and layoffs, which in itself would be another blow to the overall economy.

Housing:

The underlying cause of the Great Recession was a bursting of the housing bubble back in 2007. Home prices plunged, sparking significant financial losses that shook the globe's major financial institutions as well as the wealth of individual Americans. That's why a pickup in home sales and rising housing prices are critical for an economic recovery.

Fortunately, sales have steadily improved throughout much of this year and it appears that home prices may have finally hit bottom. Yet, some argue that housing prices remain too high in relation to income, suggesting there is still room for prices to decline. A federal tax credit for buyers and lower mortgage rates may also be helping the market -- and neither is certain to continue.

There are also worries about a so-called shadow inventory of homes that have gone into foreclosure that have yet to hit the market. Once they do, that could put further downward pressure on prices. That's why many think the housing market is still in a fragile state. And if the improvement in housing proves to be short-lived, so will the broader economic recovery.

Stock market:

The stock market is often said to be a leading indicator of the economy, meaning that stocks move higher ahead of any upturn in the economy as investors bet on better times ahead.

Major U.S. stock indexes have had a strong run since hitting a low in March, recapturing much of the decline sparked by last fall's financial crisis. Still, stocks are well below their pre-recession levels.

There are plenty of market experts who worry that prices have gotten too far ahead of actual improvement in corporate sales and earnings. A market correction probably wouldn't raise fears of another recession. But a new bear market, with prices falling about 20% from current levels, would be another shock to the financial system that could cause broader problems for a still vulnerable economy.

"Post bubble credit collapses are generally fraught with fragility and general economic weakness," said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist for investment bank Gluskin Sheff. "I don't believe you can destroy trillions of dollars of wealth and believe we're back to normal."

================
Source: from CNN.com

By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer

================
Comments: commercial real estate problem is not discussed.

Fed officials cautious on economic recovery

ATLANTA, Georgia (Reuters) – Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday struck a cautious note on the U.S. economy, citing high unemployment, heavy reliance on government support and commercial real estate woes as hurdles to recovery.

Speaking less than a week after the Fed left interest rates unchanged at near zero, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said the economy was still vulnerable.

"The strength and durability of the expansion is in question," Yellen said in Phoenix, Arizona.

"High unemployment, weak job growth and paltry wage increases are a recipe for sluggish consumer spending growth and a tepid recovery," said Yellen.

The Fed chopped overnight interest rates to near zero in December and it has pumped more than $1 trillion into the economy to spur a recovery from the deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

Last week, it reaffirmed its commitment to keep borrowing costs ultra-low for "an extended period," and financial markets will be listening to Fed officials closely to try to gauge when they may finally move to withdraw their economic support.

Whether the private sector can pick up the slack once the government boost is gone also remains to be seen, Yellen said.

Biggest I.D. theft scheme busted

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. authorities announced what they believed to be the largest hacking and identity theft case ever prosecuted on Monday in a scheme in which more than 130 million credit and debit card numbers were stolen.
Three men were indicted on charges of being responsible for five corporate data breaches in a scheme in which the card numbers were stolen from Heartland Payment Systems, 7-Eleven Inc. and Hannaford Brothers Co., federal prosecutors said in a statement.
The suspects also hacked two unidentified corporate victims, the U.S. attorney's office in New Jersey said in the statement.
Prosecutors allege Albert Gonzalez, 28, of Miami, and two unnamed Russian coconspirators targeted large corporations by scanning the list of Fortune 500 companies and exploring corporate Web sites before setting out to identify vulnerabilities.
The suspects would seek to sell the data to others who would use it to make fraudulent purchases, the statement said.

In one example, the suspects went to retail locations to identify the type of checkout machines, and after further investigation into the computer systems they uploaded information onto servers that worked as hacking platforms, the statement said.
"These servers, located in New Jersey and around the world, were used by the coconspirators to store information critical to the hacking schemes and subsequently to launch the hacking attacks," prosecutors said.
"The scheme is believed to constitute the largest hacking and identity theft case ever prosecuted by the U.S. Department of Justice," the statement said.

Emergency small business loans coming in June

WASHINGTON (CNNMoney.com) -- An emergency loan program designed to shore up struggling-but-viable small businesses will open for applications in mid-June, the Small Business Administration announced Monday.

The news came during a speech by SBA head Karen Mills kicking off the SBA's annual National Small Business Week program of publicity and networking activities. Known as America's Recovery Capital (ARC), the emergency loans were authorized in February's stimulus bill. The SBA has been working since then to pull together guidance for the new program, which will back short-term loans of up to $35,000 that business owners can use to temporarily cover their payments on existing debt. No repayment on the ARC loans will be due for 12 months, and owners will have up to five years to repay them.

The SBA plans to release guidance to banks by June 8 and will be ready to accept lender loan packages by June 15. Business owners will need to apply directly to banks for the loans, but the SBA will offer those banks a 100% guarantee on the ARC loans they make. If the business owner defaults, the SBA will pay off the loan.

SBA Administrator Mills called the ARC loans "risky" and very different than the loans her agency typically backs. Aimed at businesses with "immediate financial hardship" but a past track record of financial success, the loans are intended to aid companies that "are in a situation where they just need a little extra help to bridge the troubled waters," she said.

Right now, many small businesses find themselves struggling against the economic tides. Mills acknowledged that her constituents are in trouble and looking to the government for help.

"I have started to think of the SBA not just as a backbone for small business, but as an entire bone structure," she said before a crowded audience at the Mandarin Oriental hotel in Washington.

Talk back: Could you use an ARC loan?

Sworn in last month as the SBA's leader, Mills' talk on Monday marked one of her first public speeches in her new role. In her remarks, she said that the top three priorities for her agency are more progress on fulfilling the small business provisions of the American Recovery Act, revitalizing the agency, and "making the SBA the strongest possible voice for small businesses in the U.S."

The Recovery Act, better known as the stimulus bill, allocated $730 million for initiatives aimed at shoring up the country's small business. So far, "the results are good," Mills said. Since one stimulus provision took effect in mid-March, offering banks higher guarantees and waived fees on SBA-backed loans, the average weekly loan volume is up more than 25%, she said.

But that increase comes against a dismal backdrop for small business lending. In the quarter ended March 31, the number of loans made through agency's popular 7(a) loan program dropped 57% compared to the prior year, and several major lenders have sharply reduced their activity.

Senator Mary Landrieu, D-La., the chair of the Senate's small business committee, joined Mills in a small press conference after the public speech. Landrieu told reporters that it's a top priority for the committee and the agency to determine why 50% of the nation's banks aren't partnering with the SBA. The SBA itself does not directly loan money, but works with partner banks to offer government-backed loans.

"I would love to see any small business owner just walk around the corner to their local bank and say they're looking to expand their business," she said. "That bank should ask the SBA - would you be a partner with me?"

Landrieu also said that finding a better health care solution for small businesses is a top priority for her.

U.S. venture capital investment fell further in Q1/2009

U.S. venture capital investments sank 61 percent in the first quarter, dropping to the lowest level in 12 years as financiers became even warier about sinking funds into startups during a deepening recession.

Avoid small business grants scam

A typical Internet ad will promise thousands even if you don’t know the difference between a balance sheet and a balance beam. Real government grants are scarce, tightly targeted toward specific industries, and rigorously competitive. If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.

Getting a refresher course in that truism cost Donna Hartley of Tahoe City, Calif., a cool $2,500.

A survivor of a major plane crash, cancer and open-heart surgery, Hartley works as a motivational speaker. Interested in raising capital for her management company, Hartley scoured the Internet for leads. She found Grant Financial Network, and in August 2007, she gave the company $2,500 in return for detailed information on grants and assistance in securing them.

Grant Financial Network asked Hartley to authorize payment of the fee as a bank draft, rather than by mailing a check or paying with a credit card. That’s a big red flag: Consumer groups warn that an ACH draft or wire transfer is the most difficult kind of payment to delay or dispute.

“Months and months pass,” she recalls, with her calling repeatedly and not hearing anything. She eventually received some information from the company, but Hartley says it was nothing she couldn’t have found out herself for free - and she never received any grant money.

When Hartley called to try to get her money back, the Las Vegas-based company instead tried to get her to part with an additional $6,500, for which it promised to help her turn her company into a 501(c)(3) charitable organization. The brazen pitch, she recalls, was about how that would make her eligible for even more grant money.

“I feel like I got taken to the cleaners,” she says.

When we tried to call Grant Financial Network for a comment, the phone number listed for the company was disconnected. The Better Business Bureau of Las Vegas rates Grant Financial Network as “unsatisfactory.” The bureau processed 26 complaints about the company in the last 12 months, mostly over refund issues and allegedly dishonest sales practices. More than half of those complaints went unanswered by the company.

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Circuit bankruptcy

Bankrupt electronics retailer Circuit City Inc. said Friday it has asked for court approval to close its remaining 567 U.S. stores and sell all its merchandise.

The company said it has 34,000 employees.

The company said it will redeem its gift cards through the liquidation sale, but the cards will have no value once the stores are closed.

US retail sales plunge in December, 2008

The December retail sales plunge affected all sectors except health and personal care stores.

On an annual basis, December sales were down 9.8 percent from December 2007.

For whole year 2009, it's virtually flat from year of 2007.

SBA small business loans plunge 57%

In the first quarter of its 2009 fiscal year, which ended Dec. 31, the SBA's 7(a) program backed 8,996 loans. That's a 57% drop from the 20,859 loans the SBA backed in the first quarter of 2008, and a 62% drop from 2007's first-quarter total. The total dollar value of loans processed by the SBA also plummeted to $1.94 billion, down 40% from last year's $3.24 billion.

Business Week 2009 Predictions

Source: Business Week

In 2008 prediction, BW didn't anticipate the election of Barack Obama and the financial meltdown rippling across the world economy. But they did nail one call: 2008 was the year of $100-per-barrel oil—they however didn't anticipate its stunning slide back to $40.

For 2009:

• Recession Reigns

Expect more budget cuts, layoffs, shutdowns, bankruptcies, and mergers. Look for beleaguered bookseller Borders Group (BGP) to slip into Chapter 11, and for Barnes & Noble (BKS) to take over some of those stores—but only a few. Also expect Chrysler to merge into General Motors (GM) at a bargain-basement price as Chrysler's private equity owners at Cerberus Capital race to get that investment off their books. With the rapid collapse of oil prices, and the resulting financial pressures, expect two or more mergers among Big Oil. Our best guess? Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) buys troubled BP (BP), in part to avoid regulatory issues that could come from merging with a U.S. oil company. There will also be tremendous pressure on wireless phone prices, causing financial headaches for companies like AT&T (T). Newspaper companies' profits will continue to shrink; watch for a billionaire such as financier George Soros or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg to lead a rescue of The New York Times (NYT), which will become part of a not-for-profit corporation by the end of the year.

• Bernanke: Four and No More

President-elect Obama has nowhere to go but down in his approval ratings, so he may lose some popularity points as me makes tough choices in his early months. Also expect to see the last vestiges of the Bush Administration head for the exits. Declaring that his work is done, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will announce he'll leave the Fed upon the expiration of his four-year term as chairman on Jan. 31, 2010. While mostly not his fault, the recession has hurt his standing with the Obama Administration—and it also has worn him down on a personal level. He'll be succeeded by Lawrence Summers, former Treasury Secretary under the Clinton Administration.

There will also be realignment on the global level. Look for Canada to forge stronger labor and trade ties with Europe in an effort to further unhinge itself from the flailing U.S. economy. Canada also will snub its southern neighbor to strike more energy and resource deals with other countries—especially China, which will continue its ascendance on the world stage in spite of economic setbacks. Also, it's a good bet Vladimir Putin will reassume the Russian presidency.

• Oil Rises Again

There's a fair chance for a resurgence in oil prices, even if they dip below $30 in the next few months. Crude is likely to average $60 or $70 per barrel in 2009. OPEC will get its act together and rein in supply, and demand won't shrink as much as speculators had feared. Still, oil won't spike to the $100-plus range because consumers remain more energy-conscious. Oil companies will continue to invest in major projects as cash-strapped nations will open their doors to foreign investments just as they have done in the past when times are tough. And commodities are no longer the place for speculators to make a fast buck.

• Workers Go Creative

Economists agree that further mass layoffs will continue in 2009, and the unemployment rate could reach the double digits. That means workers will turn creative about job opportunities. Look for freelancing and small business applications to explode as laid off workers attempt to strike out on their own. The downturn also is spurring more business and other graduate school applications, and young people will continue to take shelter at universities to ride out the storm.

• Bling Takes a Break

Who can afford bling anymore? Who wants to? The ostentatious—eye-popping expense accounts, showy jewelry, McMansions—will be out and frugality will be back in fashion. Suddenly clipping coupons becomes trendy and, fortified by new Web services, hitchhiking stages a comeback. Boxed wine, already a budget sensation in Europe, will take off in the U.S. Look for eBay (EBAY) to enjoy a revival as Americans turn to the underground market to raise money and scour for bargains.

• Business Embraces Big Government

Long considered a thorn in the side of commerce, the government will continue to be the apple of the business community's eye. Why? In tough times, Uncle Sam remains the economy's last resort. That doesn't mean there won't be plenty of fights over how to regulate industries and how to create not just Big Government, but also Smart Government. But by the time all is said and done, the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP) funding will go well beyond $700 billion. President Obama will request, and Congress will approve, another several hundred billion in aid. Much of that will go to homeowners, although airlines will probably get a slug of cash as will auto parts makers.

• Digital TV Nightmare

Chaos ensues in February when U.S. broadcasters cease analog TV signals, throwing millions of Americans into a dark-screen panic. Despite nearly $1 billion in spending on educational campaigns alerting Americans to the change, surveys show that many of the 40 million or so likely to be affected still don't realize what the digital broadcast shift means to them. The government is offering a $40 subsidy to help pay for converter boxes—but plenty of Americans still using older analog TVs have no idea.

• 3D Returns in a Big Way

Recession notwithstanding, innovations in 3D technology will flourish. Computing technology firm NVIDIA (NVDA) is bringing realistic 3D effects on the desktop into the market this year, and more movie theatres will have IMAX screens. Consumers also will get a peek at James Cameron's much ballyhooed Avatar, a 3D movie and game the storied producer has been slaving over since 2004.

• Consumers Fight Back

Tapped out consumers will look for advocates in Congress for protection against predatory or deceptive practices in areas from credit-card fees to mortgages to exorbitant charges for text messaging by wireless companies. Legislation like the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which passed in the House in September, will have a better shot at passing the Democrat-controlled Congress and being signed by President Obama.

• Housing Hits Bottom, At Last

Super-low mortgage rates—engineered by the government to help zap the economy—finally motivate us to shop for houses again. Prices will remain weak, as people who had kept their houses off the market suddenly put them up for sale as soon as they see a little buying interest. Expect home prices to continue to fall through the end of 2009. While the decline will mean trouble for some, for others, it's a golden opportunity to buy. By early 2010 credit and confidence in the market will be restored, and smart investors will be pleased to see the housing market start to recover.

Online holiday sales, up to 12/23/08, fell 3%

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Online sales for the holiday period up to December 23 fell 3 percent from the same period last year, marking the first decline in online spending since comScore Inc started tracking online sales in 2001.

Too many retail stores in U.S.?

Is America too 'overstored'?

But not everyone sees a dead mall as a negative development.

"Our country has six times more retail space per capita than any other county," said Ellen Dunham-Jones, director of the architecture program at Georgia Institute of Technology.

"We're just cannibalizing our existing stores by building more stores even when sales aren't increasing," she said. "We were long due for a retail correction and we're going through it now."

Historically how long does a recession last

In 2000-01, it faced 8 months of recession, in 1990-91 about 8 months, and 1981-82 about 16 months. Historically, that is how long recession has lasted. But the Great Depression lasted for 3 years.

Warrant

In finance, a warrant is a security that entitles the holder to buy stock of the company that issued it at a specified price, which is usually higher than the stock price at time of issue.

Warrants are frequently attached to bonds or preferred stock as a sweetener, allowing the issuer to pay lower interest rates or dividends. They can be used to enhance the yield of the bond, and make them more attractive to potential buyers. Warrants can also be used in private equity deals. For instance, it was a common practice during the height of the dot-com bubble for a landlord of sought-after commercial real-estate to demand warrants from high-tech startups as part of the lease agreement. Frequently, these warrants are detachable, and can be sold independently of the bond or stock.

Credit crunch hit small businesses

Around 65% of domestic banks say they have tightened their lending standards for commercial and industrial loans to small firms over the past three months, according to the July 2008 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, released in August from the Federal Reserve System. That's up sharply from the 50% of banks reporting tighter credit in the April edition of the quarterly survey.

Buffett sees economy weak until 2009

By Jonathan Stempel

Warren Buffett said the economy is still in a recession and unlikely to improve before 2009 but that stocks appear better valued than a year ago.

The billionaire investor also said there is a "reasonable chance" shareholders of Fannie Mae (FNM.N) and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) may be wiped out in any government bailout of the mortgage financiers.

Speaking on Friday on CNBC television, Buffett said some housing-related businesses in his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N)(BRKb.N) conglomerate are struggling as the economy works off past excess in making credit available.

"You always find out who's been swimming naked when the tide goes out. We found out that Wall Street has been kind of a nudist beach," said Buffett, who in March was called the world's richest person by Forbes magazine.

He also said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has no "magic wand" to boost an economy facing weak growth prospects, mounting inflation and deteriorating credit. "In my judgment it won't be any better five months from now," he said.

Buffett nevertheless said U.S. stocks are broadly "more attractive" than a year ago. He also said Berkshire has completely unwound a once $21 billion bet against the U.S. dollar, helping boost the greenback in Friday morning trade.

In May, Buffett said Berkshire still had a stake in one currency, the Brazilian real.

The Omaha, Nebraska-based company bought $3.98 billion of stock in other companies in the second quarter, and Buffett said it has added in recent months to its big stake in either American Express Co (AXP.N) or Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N), but did not say which one.

Shares of both rose in early trading, as did major stock indexes.

Buffett reiterated his support for Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, in November's U.S. presidential election, but admires Republican rival John McCain. "President Obama is going to have plenty on his plate in January," he said.

HOUSING EXPOSURE

Since 1965, Buffett has transformed Berkshire from a failing textile company into a $180 billion conglomerate.

Berkshire is best known for insurance holdings such as Geico and sells such products as ice cream and underwear.

But its 76 businesses also include housing-related units Acme bricks, Clayton manufactured homes, Shaw carpeting and the Home Services of America Inc real estate brokerage.

"What we're seeing in business, in our retail businesses, or anything having to do with housing, is even a further slowing down in June and July, both in terms of credit experience where people first got in trouble with house payments, and now credit card payments," Buffett said.

Some economists say a recession occurs when the economy contracts for two straight quarters. Buffett said it occurs when people are doing less well than before.

In morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Berkshire Class A shares rose $1,650 to $116,650, and its Class B shares rose $50 to $3,885. American Express shares rose $1.42 to $38.43, Wells Fargo rose 99 cents to $29.43.

The CNBC interview was tied to the national roll-out of the documentary "I.O.U.S.A.," which argues that the nation might face economic disaster if it doesn't curtail mounting debt.

Buffett is interviewed in the movie.

"THE GAME IS OVER"

Fannie and Freddie shares have plummeted as speculation grows about a government bailout of the companies, which own or guarantee almost half of U.S. mortgages. Shares of both have fallen more than 90 percent in the last year.

Buffett called them "too big to fail" and said "the game is over" for them as independent companies. "In a practical sense, as institutions, they don't have any net worth," he said.

Buffett said he has not been approached to assist in any bailout, which he said would be too big to come from the private sector. Though he said "nothing is going to happen" to investors in Fannie's and Freddie's insured mortgages or debt, but "the equity and preferred stock is another question."

Berkshire is trying to reduce the $31.16 billion of cash on its balance sheet, and Buffett said he is being approached by a growing number of "distressed" companies rather than viable takeover candidates.

Buffett said he recently tried to invest $500 million in a Chinese stock he declined to name, but was turned down.

He also said he erred in selling 61 percent of Berkshire's stake in Anheuser-Busch Cos (BUD.N) for $61 to $62 per share, ahead of the U.S. brewer's July agreement to be taken over by Belgium's InBev NV (INTB.BR) for $70 per share.

"It was about valuation and whether I thought the deal would go through," Buffett said. "In retrospect, I was wrong to decide to partially sell."

(Additional reporting by Euan Rocha and Vivianne Rodrigues; Editing by Steve Orlofsky/Jeffrey Benkoe/Daniel Trotta)

Resource conservation

Water Conservation

1. Conduct an indoor/outdoor water usage assessment.

2. Implement all applicable simple conservation measures.

3. Implement industry specific water conservation measures.

Energy Conservation

1. Have your local energy utility or an energy service company conduct a commercial energy assessment.

2. Perform regular maintenance on heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system.

3. Implement alternative technologies and behavioral changes.

Monthly cash flow calculations

Starting cash -- This is your starting balance at the beginning of each month.

Cash in -- All cash received during the month, including sales, paid receivables, interest or cash from sales of assets or stock.

Cash out -- Includes all fixed and variable expenses.

Ending cash -- This is your ending balance. Add starting cash to cash in for total cash, then subtract cash out.


*Source: www.bankrate.com

IRS Audit red flags

According to CNNMoney.com

• No profit.
• Very low revenues.
• Sloppy handwritten business return.
• Return has blank sections.
• Take unlikely deduction (plumbing supply owner claiming too many business trips).
• Outsized and excessive deductions.
• Too much fun, such as excessive travel, car, entertainment, and cell phone expenses.
• As part of its small-business crackdown, the IRS is targeting sole proprietors. Schedule C filers with more than $100,000 in annual revenues were audited at a rate of 3.9% in 2006, up from 1.5% in 2000.
• Nice round numbers.

Small business inventory count

Pareto method

The Pareto method, derived from the Pareto principle, is to cycle count inventory by percentage of inventory value. This leads to the expensive items being counted most frequently.

This traditional approach may appeal to accountants by minimizing the variance in inventory value.

Cycle counting by usage

Cycle counting by usage states that items more frequently accessed should be counted more often, irrespective of value. Every time an employee adds or removes an item, there is a risk of introducing inventory variance. Logical inventory zones can be set up to distinguish items depending on how frequently they are touched. Volume consumed and volume transacted and volume moved are all ways of determining this.

ABC codes

When carrying out an ABC analysis, inventory items are valued (item cost multiplied by quantity issued/consumed in period) with the results then ranked. The results are then grouped typically into three bands. These bands are called ABC codes.

1. "A class" inventory will typically contain items that account for 60% of total value
2. "B class" inventory will have around 20% of total value
3. "C class" inventory will account for the remaining 20%

U.S. Small Business Administration

Here is web link to government site: SBA

The U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA) was created in 1953 as an independent agency of the federal government to aid, counsel, assist and protect the interests of small business concerns, to preserve free competitive enterprise and to maintain and strengthen the overall economy of our nation.

Accounting methods

The accrual method -

• Income is recognized when the order is made, the item is delivered, or the services occur, regardless of when the money is actually received.
  
• Expenses are recognized when you receive the goods or services. You don't wait until after money is paid out.
  

The cash method -

• Income is recognized when cash/check/money is received.
  
• Expenses are recognized when they are paid out.

Under the cash method, you generally report income in the tax year you receive it and deduct expenses in the tax year you pay them. Under an accrual method, you generally report income in the tax year you earn it, regardless of when payment is received, and deduct expenses in the tax year you incur them, regardless of when payment is made.